The General Election

                So, the Pennsylvania Primary is next Tuesday the 24^th, and the nominee for both parties is decided. The only real significance of the primary in terms of the Barack Obama and Mitt Romney race is that the state could be used to make a statement. Neither party wants to have a lower voter turnout than the other purely for sake of their pride. All in all, the only race that actually matters in the primary at a national level is the race for attorney general, and even that pales in comparison to the significance of picking a presidential candidate. 

abcnews.com

                In light of the recent developments, I’m going to give a quick preview of the general election in the fall. Regardless of your political affiliation, it is apparent that this will be a close race. Given the fact that Pennsylvania is a swing state with a large number of Electoral College delegates, it is likely that both candidates will visit Penn State in the fall. I actually work with the Obama campaign and know that it is highly, highly likely that he will come. I have no inside knowledge about Romney’s plans, but it would be strange for him to visit Pennsylvania and not come to Penn State.

                In terms of constituencies that each party must pick up in order to win the election, Republicans must gain back the women vote. The past four years have resulted in an increase in abortion restrictions, something which most women consider to be a very important issue.  Both parties are fighting over the Latino vote. As the largest minority population in the country, their vote will be extremely important in the Southwest and Florida. That is a group that Romney will have to fight especially hard to win given his reputation as a rich white guy with a hard time relating to other people who aren't rich white guys.

                That’s just a quick preview of what to expect to hear about in the fall. My prediction is that Obama will win by a reasonably small margin (around 4% of the popular vote). That’s all for this semester. Remember to vote.

Santorum Is Out

So, it’s official. Or at least as official as it can be without being formally announced: Mitt Romney will be the Republican Presidential nominee come this fall. If you’ve been following the election at all these past few months then that really shouldn’t be a surprise to you, since he was the frontrunner and presumptive nominee from the very beginning of the primary campaigns. While all of the potential nominees experienced their own small peaks in approval ratings, all of them eventually dropped out of the race, leaving Romney as the sole viable Republican candidate standing.

reddogreport.com

There are still quite a few primaries left before the Republican National Convention (RNC), which is why no one can technically say that Romney is the “official” nominee, though he certainly is in everything but name. Newt Gingrich is still on the ballot in many states, and although Rick Santorum has officially suspended his campaign, he has not said that he is dropping out (although the writing has been on the wall for those two for a long time). The Pennsylvania primary is Tuesday after next, April 24^th and some voters will likely still vote for Gingrich and Santorum even though they are both out of the race. However, at this point it isn’t even a race because the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

This really has no purpose. I just find the misspelling amusing.

In terms of what all this means for the fall, Santorum suspending (and effectively ending) his campaign is both good and bad news for President Obama. It’s good because he now knows who his opponent in the general election will be, but it’s bad because Mitt Romney is a much more electable candidate than Rick Santorum. If Rick Santorum, as the result of some freak accident, won the nomination Obama would barely even need to campaign come fall. Santorum’s position is too far right for him to receive virtually any moderates and swing voters. All in all, it will be an exciting campaign come fall. 

Romney Wins (Not Yet Really, But He Has)

After three decisive primary wins this week, it has become apparent that

Mitt Romney will win the Republican Presidential Nomination (something I have been saying for weeks).  Wisconsin, Maryland, and District of Columbia (all winner take all primaries) went to Romney, giving him eighty-six delegates this week, and making his total delegate count six hundred and fifty five.

boston.com

If they had not done so already, most major media outlets have called Romney as the winner. Still, Santorum has stated that he will continue his campaign and that he still believes he has a change. Barring any near nuclear disaster scandals (a la the West Wing) that seems virtually impossible, so come the fall, it will be Mitt Romney versus Barrack Obama in the general elections.

            Now, despite the fact that Romney has the nomination all but sewn up, there are still twenty more primaries ranging from April 21^st to June 26^th. For the next two weeks, the media’s focus will all be on how Romney now has the nomination secured and how he should proceed from there. Santorum will continue to campaign and will have to find some way to keep some part of the attention on him until the next primaries.   

cbsnews.com

            Pennsylvania is an important state in the primaries, with a large delegate count, so Santorum will likely be campaigning in this state at some point in the coming two weeks. He visited campus earlier this fall, and it is likely that he will be making another stop here. Penn State is a huge collection of potential voters. In the past students have split 60-40 (Democrat-Republican), which is a more favorable proportion than in other colleges in larger cities, so it makes sense for Santorum to visit.

            The next primary is in Missouri on April 21^st, followed by five on April 24^th.