Why Michigan Voters Hate Romney And Santorum

There were no primaries this week, so in light of that I’m going to preview what is coming up next, and why it could pose such a challenge to the frontrunners. The next two primaries are Michigan and Arizona, both on February 28^th. Michigan has a delegate count of 30, while Arizona has a delegate count of 29, so both are reasonably sized in that respect. At this point in the race, Santorum continues to hold the lead, with a 5.2 point lead over Romney. However, despite holding the lead now, he was barely in second place three weeks ago.  Between the three main candidates: Santorum, Romney, and Gingrich, it is still anyone’s race at this point. Though Ron Paul is still campaigning, it has become pretty clear at this point that he doesn’t pose any real threat to the three other candidates. He may do well in a few states, and even win one or two, but he differs too much from the Republican ideals to truly be a powerful force in the primary elections.

Now, onto the Michigan primary. It would be a natural assumption, given that Romney was born in Michigan, that he would have some sort of advantage in that state. That is most definitely not the case. In fact, Mitt Romney is disliked to a pretty big extent there. I should explain the background of why Michigan voters dislike Romney so much, and why he probably won’t do so well. In 2008, Chrysler and GM, both major auto companies, declared bankruptcy. Then president Bush passed an initial bailout, giving them money to keep from going under and dissolving an enormous number of jobs. After President Obama was elected, he passed a second bailout, loaning even more money to these companies. That money saved the two largest companies in the American auto industry, and in doing so, saved all jobs attendant to the auto industry. Now, both companies are doing well, and reporting profits for the first time in a number of years. Detroit is the largest city in Michigan, and bases much of its economy around the auto industry. What does any of this have to do with Mitt Romney? Well, back when the bailout was first passed, Romney stated that he disapproved of the action. He went so far as to write an op-ed article titled “Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”. As you can imagine, this did not endear him to Michigan residents. However, Romney is not the only one who opposed the bailouts. Santorum also made clear that he did not support the actions. With the top two candidates so disliked, who knows what will happen. Maybe Gingrich will surge and make a play for Michigan. Whatever happens, we will have a clearer view of the race after Super Tuesday on March 6^th. 

The Results Are In...Or Are They?

cbsnews.com

                There was only one election this week, a non-binding caucus in Maine on February 11. Voter turnout was low, as it typically is in early primaries. Mitt Romney won with 39% of the vote, followed in a close second by Ron Paul with 36% of the vote. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich were third and fourth respectively. Maine is a small state, with a relatively low number of delegates, but winning there was important for Romney to gain back some of Santorum’s momentum. However, a recount has been initiated like with the Iowa Caucus back in January. In that instance Romney was initially declared the winner before it was revealed that Rick Santorum had actually won the state. Granted, this election was a non-binding caucus, meaning that the results don’t actually mean anything, but another falsely reported win for Romney could stall his momentum even more.

            A strange phenomenon is occurring, where even though Mitt Romney is in first place in terms of delegates by a fair amount (98 to Santorum’s 44), he is not in first place in national public opinion polls. Rick Santorum actually has about a 6-point lead in public opinion over Romney even though he trails in the delegate count by a significant amount. This whole process to find the eventual Republican Presidential nominee is atypical this year. Normally, whoever leads in the delegate count also leads in public opinion polls. However, this year that is not the case, with three main candidates that each has a decent chance of winning the nomination and no real, clear front-runner. True, Romney was the presumed frontrunner, but a strong showing by Santorum recently has really thrown the Romney campaign for a loop.

            The next two states to vote are Michigan and Arizona, both on February 28^th. After that is “Super Tuesday”, on March 6^th. Super Tuesday gets its name because on that particular Tuesday there are a large number of primaries held. This year there will be ten states voting that day. This should help clear the field a little bit, indicating a leader, or at least getting rid of one or two candidate’s chances. 

Santorum Wins...And Romney Doesn't Care

Last week, I wrote about how Romney seemed to be the only candidate with any real traction. In the past seven days, he has lost preliminary elections in three states (Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri) to the same man, Rick Santorum. However, due to some very specific circumstances, the results of these three elections should not cause Romney and his campaign any undue worry. On the surface it looks like a large victory for Santorum, since he won by a substantial amount in all three states, but as the details become revealed, the importance of these wins decreases.

melissablogs.com

            For starters, both Minnesota and Colorado were caucuses, which are different from primaries. In a caucus, a small group of voters come together in a system of local gatherings and decide which candidate they support. This is different from a primary, which is a statewide voting process with secret ballots, similar to the voting process in the general election in November. Also, both Minnesota and Colorado have a proportional system, not a winner take all system, so other candidates besides the one in first place also won delegates. Another indicator that these caucuses and primary weren’t all that important was the number of people who participated. In all three states the number of voters was very small, meaning only a specific part of the population within that state was represented within the vote. The most important part of all of this though, is that none of the results in the three states are binding. In Missouri, the primary was little more than a glorified opinion poll, with the true selection of Republican candidate later in the schedule. In Minnesota and Colorado it means that delegates are not bound by the vote. The specifics are different in each state, but in all three states it means that Santorum gained zero guaranteed votes despite winning in each state.

            At this point, the point count stands at 90 for Romney, 44 for Santorum, 32 for Gingrich, and 13 for Paul. With over 1,000 points needed to win the nomination, there’s a long way to go, and even now the point counts aren’t completely stable. The Republican National Committee (RNC) declared that no states could hold a binding, winner takes all contest before April 1. Florida violated this rule, and Gingrich is currently appealing the RNC to try and capture some of the 50 delegates from that state. Next week Maine holds its contest, which is also a non-binding caucus, on February 11. After that there will be no further elections until the 28^th, when Michigan and Arizona hold their primaries. 

Florida Primary

        
           So, here we are again. After Tuesday's Republican primary in Florida, Mitt Romney was reestablished as the frontrunner to gain the presidential nomination. With Gingrich's surprising victory in South Carolina earlier in January, many people thought he could become the new frontrunner should he keep up the momentum. However, Romney demonstrated yet again exactly why he has been the consistent favorite for the nomination with a convincing 46% of the votes to Gingrich's 32%. Santorum came in third with just over 13% of the vote after leaving the campaign early to go home to be with his sick daughter, and Ron Paul came in fourth with a barely mentionable percentage of the vote.

huffingtonpost.com

          The way the electoral system works, each state is given a certain number of delegates. Most states have a winner take all system, meaning that when a candidate wins a state, they win the all of delegates that come with that state. Some states though, have a proportional system, where the delegates are divided amongst the candidates according to who came in first, second, third, etc. The number of candidates assigned to each state depends on the population of the state. So, for example, Florida, which has a much larger population, has 50 delegates, while the less populated New Hampshire only has 12 delegates. In order to secure the Republican nomination a candidate needs to secure at least 1,144 delegates. As it stands now, Romney has 65 delegates, Gingrich has 23, Santorum has 6, and Paul has 3. If anyone is going to seriously contend with Romney for any significant period of time, then they have to start winning some states with more delegates in order to have a fighting chance. The next primary is in Nevada, which uses a proportional system, on February 4th followed by Minnesota and Colorado on the 7th. In order for any candidate to get any kind of real traction and disrupt Romney's momentum they need to pick up some delegates from these states.