The Results Are In...Or Are They?

cbsnews.com

                There was only one election this week, a non-binding caucus in Maine on February 11. Voter turnout was low, as it typically is in early primaries. Mitt Romney won with 39% of the vote, followed in a close second by Ron Paul with 36% of the vote. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich were third and fourth respectively. Maine is a small state, with a relatively low number of delegates, but winning there was important for Romney to gain back some of Santorum’s momentum. However, a recount has been initiated like with the Iowa Caucus back in January. In that instance Romney was initially declared the winner before it was revealed that Rick Santorum had actually won the state. Granted, this election was a non-binding caucus, meaning that the results don’t actually mean anything, but another falsely reported win for Romney could stall his momentum even more.

            A strange phenomenon is occurring, where even though Mitt Romney is in first place in terms of delegates by a fair amount (98 to Santorum’s 44), he is not in first place in national public opinion polls. Rick Santorum actually has about a 6-point lead in public opinion over Romney even though he trails in the delegate count by a significant amount. This whole process to find the eventual Republican Presidential nominee is atypical this year. Normally, whoever leads in the delegate count also leads in public opinion polls. However, this year that is not the case, with three main candidates that each has a decent chance of winning the nomination and no real, clear front-runner. True, Romney was the presumed frontrunner, but a strong showing by Santorum recently has really thrown the Romney campaign for a loop.

            The next two states to vote are Michigan and Arizona, both on February 28^th. After that is “Super Tuesday”, on March 6^th. Super Tuesday gets its name because on that particular Tuesday there are a large number of primaries held. This year there will be ten states voting that day. This should help clear the field a little bit, indicating a leader, or at least getting rid of one or two candidate’s chances.